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KK .10./.20 PS--fold river when best result is a chop?
PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)
I had just gotten to table and villain is an unknown. I'm not thrilled when I bet the drawy flop and he calls. When the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] shows up on the turn, my thinking is that I'm much more likely to be called or raised with something that's beating me instead of something I'm still ahead of. But I call with ten outs. But on the river, at best I'm chopping, so I'm getting only 6.75:2 on a call. I can make this call profitably if 1 out of 4 times he doesn't have a diamond and he's bluffing given my obvious fear of the board. My question--in the absence of any info on villain, is there any reason to think that he's bluffing here at least 1 out of 4 times? When he calls with 3 diamonds on the flop, I think I'm screwed there. But I'm half expecting to be raised if he's holding the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Also, is there any merit to betting the turn hoping to bluff a low diamond? I didn't think so, because I can't imagine what he'd be holding if one of his cards is a diamond that he'd be willing to fold here. Maybe 8-7 or something. I don't think he folds the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. With the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the turn, that's one less [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for him to fear if he's not holding the A. Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>. Flop: (5.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls. Turn: (3.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls. River: (5.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero? |
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