QJo from SB

[beyazkus]

well the turn raise screams a set of 3s or 7s, i can't think that he could be raising with A7s (spades) in that spot... Q7s or 73s? well some people play it, if we were to take the vpi for 60 hands seriously it could be possible, but still a set is more likely... another possiblity is that he was behind with QT on the flop and turned two pair... so to a set you have 2 outs (queens), to a two pair you have 3 outs (jacks), this is low limit so you always have to consider the possibity of something like JJ or 54s, 65s...

lets put these into percentages...

50% set - 2 out
35% two pair - 3 outs
15% flush or worse - 38 outs (46-9+1)
(the non spade outs, keeping in mind we have the J of spades)

after distributing the averages we get a total of 8 outs provided that our assumptions are correct. getting 9.5 - 1, its a clear call.

as for the river, if a non spade falls call him down. around 5-1 (15%) according to our previous assumptions for him to have a busted draw or something totally idiotic, and 11.5-1 in the pot.