QQ from upfront early in Warmup...Is this ok?

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Responding to a bunch of different posts:

If you have some other way to adjust for this problem, more power to you. What works for me when deciding when to play across events is to consider total chip outlay in relation to max payoff.

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First off I'll start by saying that people who say baltostar is making false statements arent completely right.

But I hasten to add that baltostar ( IMO) hasnt made clear his base assumptions and model. So it is in fact a half truth.

The way I see it, what baltostar is proposing is an alternate methodology to compute implied odds, because magically computing the possibility of btn reraise etcis not possible.

While it might be a good strategy to employ for a bot, humans can do better, and thats why we use cost to call. As humans we can adapt better when more information becomes available.

Again your method solves the apparent paradox of using cost to call, when trapped in a min-raising war between two other stacks, but it does not perform well in most situations.

If you design your algorithm to work well for all cases, and make special concession for fringe cases which constitute 5% (shooting from the hip figure, but something ridiculously low) of all cases, then, quite often it will be a poor strategy.

It will be much better to identify the fringe cases, and deal with each separately and accordingly. Treating everything uniformly is a cop-out in my opinion. You seem to have given up and want to do no better.

So you are bent upon creating this uniform decision making model, completely ignoring improvements that can be made on the basis of empirical evidence.

eg: the raising war will happen very infrequently. WHy?? Because empirical evidence tends to indicate so.

Now if you were writing a bot, you could use cost to call in most cases, and total cost in special cases, that are identified using some basic heuristics. I'm pretty sure you would gain equity overall, despite losing some equity while identifying problem cases.