this is probably why goofyballer thinks i am nuts

[ikestoys]

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some thoughts:

1) i am betting this river with anything i am calling $65 with. i believe villain is good enough, despite the donkish appearance of his pre/flop/turn play to recognize this.

2) i don't expect to fold out flushes often, if ever. i expect him to call with a flush close to 95% or so (just a guess). that said, this isn't the kind of play i just whip out every 100 hands so he shouldn't feel great calling off another 125BBs here.

3) the crux of this hand is the ratio of how often he has 56/78/89/77+/{hands i beat anyway} to how often he has a flush.

thoughts?

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relying on villains to fold two pair is just dumb