Seemingly easy EV calculation I can't figure out

[swede554]

(This requires doing some math, so if no one feels like doing it, I understand. However, it's good practice if you're not that familiar how to calculate Expected Value)

So for some reason when I run these numbers through pokerstove they don't match up. Please tell me why.

This is the situation. It's somewhat hypothetic.

CO raises, Hero re-raises allin from SB w/ 44. CO's raising range is 77+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs+ and he'll call the re-raise 100% of the time.

If Hero wins the hand he'll win 160,000.
If Hero losses, he'll lose 131,000.

According to pokerstove Hero has 37% equity vs. villains range.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.943% 62.65% 00.29% 669397500 3137016.00 { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 37.057% 36.76% 00.29% 392806164 3137016.00 { 44 }

So,

+160,000 x 37%= +59,200
-131,000 x 63%= -82,530

59,200-82,530= -23,330

So Hero's play has a EV of -23,330 right?


BUT when I calculate my EV by separately adding my EV vs. the overpairs (77+) and my EV vs. the overcards I get a different number.

There are 48 combos of overpairs he'll call with. 77-AA(8x6) There are 80 combos of overcards he'll call with. AT+, KQ(5x16). So when he calls, 37.5% of the time it's 77+, 62.5% it's AK-AT, KQ. Given that:

77+
.19x +160,000= +30,400
.81x -131,000= -106,110
= -75,710 x 37.5%
= -28,391

AT+, KQ
.53x +160,000= +84,800
.47x -131,000= -61,570
= +23,230x 62.5%
= +14,519

-28,391+14,519
= -13,872

So doing it that way my EV is -13,872, different from the initial calculation.

What am I doing wrong?