AA in small stakes satelite

[AhabCaptain]

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i duno i thought about it and didnt wanna trade 100% for 80%.


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Let's assume that disregarding chipstack sizes the probability of making it into the money is equal for everyone : 1/17*14=82%
Now if we do take into account stack-sizes you may have somewhat more chance, say 85%. You're trading 85% for 80%, which is not a bad trade understanding that knocking out a player here is a pretty good business. With 16 players left disregarding chipstacks: 1/16*14=87,5%, but counting that you will be around 40k, one of the chip leaders your chances of making it over the bubble grow to above 90%.

So your decision is: given an 80% chance do I wanna raise my chances of winning from 85% to above 90%? I would - not to mention that losing won't even put you off, since you will stay there with cca.10k and could still fight with the 6 other shortstacks for making it.