What do you think of my hand analysis?

[thomasperfecto]

Mansion
*** Blind Bet Round *** : Villain : Post Blind ($0.15)Player 1 : Post Blind ($0.25)Player 2 : Post Blind ($0.25)Dealt to Hero: Dealt to Hero: As Kd

Ok lets break it down!

*** Pre-Flop *** : Hero : Bet ($2.25) Player 1 : Fold Player 2 : Fold Villain : Call ($2.10) Player 3 : Fold

Your first to act here with AK/os. I think your raise of 9 x the BB is a little excessive – even if it is only a quid in real terms! I would make a standard raise of 3xBB plus 1BB more for that extra blind that’s been posted. AK is a drawing hand and by keeping the pot relatively small it’s easier to get away from if you miss the flop.
Now let me consider the villains play here… Villain is in the SB with 99 and he’s calling $2.10 into a $2.9 pot so he’s being laid less than 3-to-2 and is first to act on later streets. Against an opening raise of 9xBB what can he put you on? Not AA, since you’d more likely limp that or make a standard raise, so I’d put you on JJ QQ KK AK and so villain is at best 50/50 against AK and at worse 80/20. His odds of improving on the flop are about 10-to-1, so whatever he puts you on this is a -ev call for him. The better move is raise or fold. Folding is exactly 0 EV since he neither wins nor loses anything by folding (never consider chips that have already been committed except for calculating odds).
Raising introduces the possibility that you might fold but unless he’s seen you fold to a re-raise at least 8 times out of ten, this is still –ev so folding is the superior move for Villain.

*** Flop *** : 4h Ad 9d
Villain : Bet ($3.25) Hero : Call ($3.25)

Now this is an interesting flop since you both seemingly made your hands. You got TPTK and a backdoor draw to the nut flush, on an otherwise raggedy board. He on the other hand has made his fluky set.
Now after villain bets 3.25 the pot is 8.25 and so your getting 2.5 to 1 to call. What can you put him on? I’d put him on a flush draw with something like JQd since he should usually bet his draws and check his monsters (again, betting the draw gives him two ways to win). You have to put him on either the Set or the draw and the way he’s played it I would put him on the draw 7 in 10 times.
However this is where I would play it differently. If you put him on the set then you have to fold. If you put him on the draw then by calling you are giving him the opportunity to draw out on you. Instead I would push here or make it another $20 to go and force him to make a poor decision. If he calls and makes his flush then I just re-up and carry on, knowing I got my money in with the best of it. If he shows me 99 then I make a note on his file “loose – donk – calls with pfr’s with sh1tty pairs” and move on…

*** Turn *** : [ 4h Ad 9d ] 5h Vallain : Check Hero: Bet ($8)Villain : Raise ($20) Hero: Call ($12)

His check here is synonymous with the flush draw – I think most players will check the turn if they miss since they don’t want to risk being raised out of the pot with the draw - excepting the ubber aggressive types who might fire a second bullet.
You have to bet here for two reasons
1 – to price out any draws – if he calls you with his flush draw he’s a 4-1 underdog and you make money long term.
2 – To get information – if you are check raised you know he has the set and you can get away from the hand. This is where you slipped up. You got the info you needed but failed to act on it. His check raise can be nothing other than a set and you are drawing dead.

*** River *** : [ 4h Ad 9d 5h ] Kc Villain Bet ($43.70) Hero : Call ($40.95)

Fold!

*** SUMMARY ***Pot: $134.65 Rake: $1.50Board: [ 4h Ad 9d 5h Kc ]gbillingham lost $66.45 Shows [ As Kd ] (two pairs, Aces and Kings)tessa80 lost $0.25 harakirihoro lost $0 d3ar7dent1st bet $69.20, collected $134.65, net $65.45 Shows [ 9c 9s ] (three nines)TehAAsi lost $0.25

bugger