ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox

[vhawk01]

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It sort of seems like you are trying to trap him or something? Yes, that is what he is saying.

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There are a lot of people who visit this forum, but not this sb forum (or who are just not knowledgeable bettors in general) who would pronounce that they feel confident in a bet if they think they're still favored, even if they're laying 10:1. That's what I was trying to ascertain.

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But he isn't "still favored" he is still more than a 10:1 favorite. Maybe I am also dumb, but I would still feel very comfortable with my bet at this point (or the point at which you initially asked) and would not be wishing I could back out. At the very least its really close. I understand the win expectancy figures are for league average teams, and that Boston has an above-average offense, but CLE has an above-average bullpen as well. I really don't think there has been a time since Jurollo offered the bet that he was +EV, although perhaps right after the third home run it was pretty close.