Why is Deal or No Deal not the Monte Carlo problem?

[Lottery Larry]

I'm not sure if this is going to help me, but what you and Sheets added made me think of this possible explaination:

- In the "LL's Monte Hall does DoND", I'm going to intentionally not show you the Ace.

- Also, the other card you end up with to choose from (in this case, the 5) is not going to be exposed either 90% of the time, because it's ....

(never mind, that doesn't work- too many conditions).

I have to come up with a simple explaination that makes it clear how unlikely I was to not have to expose the 5 in the big pile, along with intentionally not exposing the Ace in the big pile...

Something along the lines of "you knew I wouldn't expose the Ace, so how likely was it that I wouldn't have exposed the other card (the 5) before I'd gotten down to two cards to choose from?"

Maybe something with the birthday thing that Sheets came up with.... eh, I don't know. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]