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Old 10-14-2007, 08:39 PM
downrange downrange is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 157
Default Re: AA river decision

[ QUOTE ]
I call river as played versus this villain, though it's pretty close given his passivity.

[/ QUOTE ]
1.7 on 70 vpip is extremely aggressive; granted it's only 40 hands but this guy is either betting anything anywhere or folding a lot.

On the end I think this guy is either bluffing an inferior split/pocket pair using the rr flush or has 2x clubs or Th8h. I normally play limit but you need to be right here 1/3 and in an essentially readless situation the way the board has drawn up, I think you need better odds to make the call.

He makes a teensy-tiny flop donk, probably bets turn thinking you'll give up but he calls a big raise. Because he didn't reraise turn he doesn't have a J; if he doesn't have a J then he must have donked flop with an inferior split/pocket pair or heart draw. So on the turn he either picked up a 4-fl or str draw + 4-fl. If he's been b-f a lot I pitch this.
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