the Religous Right are flexing their muscle on Republican Candidates.

[bobman0330]

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I really don't agree with bobman here, as much as I usually respect his opinion.

First, the "Bush coalition" was very tenuous as best, even at it's height. Remember that Bush won both elections by very close margins; neither election was anything like Reagan/Mondale. I point this out to note that "going back to the 2004 status quo" is a very dicey tactic; the coalition wasn't that strong to begin with.

But here's why I disagree with bobman: consider that the biases built in to our electoral institutions have hurt the Democratic Party much more than the GOP in the last two decades. There is a fundamental anti-urban bias with single-seat, winner-take-all districts, and to the GOP's credit, they used their time in power at the local level to gerrymander districts so successfully that many urban areas have been packed to the point that the Democratic Party may not be able to overcome the GOP advantage in suburban and exurban areas for generations. Again: Al Gore won a half million more votes nationwide than George Bush in 2000, but Bush beat Gore in 47 more of the 2002 congressional districts. From 2000 to 2004 (where every single Senate seat had been contested at least once), over 200 million votes were cast in Senate. The Republicans won 46.8% of the votes in these elections, while the Democrats won 48.4% of the votes; yet in 2004, the GOP held a 55 to 44 majority in the Senate. In 2004, over 51% of votes cast were for Democratic senatorial candidates, yet Republicans won 19 of the 34 contested seats.

These structural advantages aren't going anywhere, so I'm not ready to count the GOP down-and-out yet. But they do need to rebuild the coalition, as the demographic problems facing the GOP are enormous, and the current 'enforcement and deportation only' policies of the GOP only exacerbate the problem. Karl Rove and Grover Norquist can do the math, and they tried their best to steer the GOP away from the Tancredo path. I'm skeptical it worked -- it seems as if the GOP is going to be the party very hawkish on immigration in 2008...but once that fails, it shouldn't take long for the GOP to adapt, and if they can somehow appeal to Latinos while not alienating the xenophobic elements of the base ... and combine all of this with their inherent structural advantages -- I don't think the party will be dead and buried for long. Latinos voters are extremely diverse -- so I'm not going to pretend there's anyway to pigeon-hole a group that will eventually constitute close to 20% of the electorate -- but there's ample evidence they can be brought into the GOP camp when the Republican campaign narrative is about embracing family values and valuing hard work, and not about building huge border walls, deporting people, demonizing the Spanish language, etc.

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Brilliant, thanks. Also, where have you been?