STTF SNG->cash thread

[Jbrochu]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this a good spot to try to get a T to fold?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $61.15
SB: $41.35
BB: $29.15
Hero (UTG): $56.70
CO: $82.70

Pre-Flop: 8 8 dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.05</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.25) K T 7 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($2.25) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $1</font>, Hero calls $1

River: ($4.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>

[/ QUOTE ]


Hate to stir up a hornets nest here, but my curiosity is not satisfied and I can't seem to set up the math problem myself so I'm hoping one of you guru's will help.

Let's assume Cha's instinct is that he's behind 60% of the time so it's worth $1.70 to check behind. (.4 * $4.25)

How do I set up the math to figure out how often villain has to fold to Cha's $3.50 bet assuming villain actually is ahead 60% of the time, and of course villain never calls with a losing hand?