who plays in the BCS title game?

[teamdonkey]

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So... how likely is it for each of the current undefeated teams to remain undefeated this year? This is a key component to predicting the BCS title game... and I have numbers!

For each of the 11 current undefeated teams, I calculated the predicted spread for each of their remaining games using Sagarin's predictor rankings. I assumed they would face the highest rated team in their conference in a conference title game, and used a home advantage of 3. I then used Bookmaker.com's current data set of spreads and moneylines to calculate a rough conversion between spread and odds of winning, and used this to calculate each team's odds of winning each remaining game. Then it was just simple multiplication to get the odds of them remaining perfect for the whole year.

Thus, without further ado, the odds of each team remaining undefeated according to Sagarin are approximately:

Ohio State - 49.8% (favored by 9.5 @Penn State, 15+ in every other game)
LSU - 30.9% (double digit fave in every game until the SEC Championship)
Hawaii - 18.2% (Favored by double digits until their last two games, and still 2.5 and 2.6 point faves at home to BSU and UDub)
Cincinnati - 14.4% (favored @USF)
Arizona State - 5.7%
South Florida - 4.8%
Boston College 4.6%
Kansas - 3.5% (18.4% chance of reaching the Big Twelve title game unscathed)
Cal - 1.5% (underdog @UCLA, @ASU, and vs. USC)
Connecticut - 0.9%
Missouri - 0.02% (it sucks to have to play Oklahoma twice)

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please keep the spreadsheet and update this every week!