NLTRN - High Level ... what the ... ??

[Collin Moshman]

abc has a point; Genius has to factor in the possibility that Dario's on a stone bluff. Getting 1.7:1 he needs to win about 37%.

Dario holds pair: Genius is ~8%
Dario holds flush draw: Genius is ~45%
Dario holds 2 overs, no FD: Genius is ~75%

So if Genius puts Dario on a distribution like {1/3, 1/3, 1/3} he's 42%, enough for slight value. Normally I'd say that's very optimistic thinking (e.g. against even a normal LAG I wouldn't weight no draw no pair higher than around 10%, 15% max) ... but looking at Hand #2 it's clear Dario is very happy to gamble. Even if pokts is folding his weaker PPs and aces, calling with around 20%, this shove is barely breaking even.

You'd think a top player would want to keep chip swings low, the exact opposite of what's going on these two hands. Either these hands are uncharacteristic, or there's some very complex meta going at the nosebleed HUNL's.