50NL: (Long) Looking for advice about what to do now

[Specialwon]

So I have now closed out September a few days late, as I wanted to complete a bonus. This was my first full month at NL50.

This has been my first ever month of losing at the tables since I started to play poker earlier this year. I am down just over 4 BI's ($214) on the month. Set against that, I've made around 500 from bonuses and 60 or so from tourneys, but I had to cash out some money, and so my roll is now only about 16 BI's.

I play Ongame and I can't find any variance software to see how much of this is my fault. So, I've done a quick manual analysis, from which I get:

Total hands - 17,500.
Total pots where I committed 50BB or more: 64. Won 30, lost 34

Set over sets: won 3, lost 6 (177 variance)
Top 2 vs set: won 1 lost 2 (30 variance).
AA vs KK: Won 2 lost 4 (although I am probably stacking off to easy with KK in this spot)

Success rate with 3 of a kind and full house is almost identical at 65%.

AA wins 82%, KK wins 78%.

The only other big variance item I could find was 5 100BB hands where we had got it all either pre or on the flop and villain had sucked out with a 4 outer or less (240 bucks). Mostly this was flipaments where donkey had been going all in every hand. I lost twice with KK against T8 and A2, villain made a straight both times. The others are miracle rivers or whatever.

Now I understand that these kinds of suckouts happen, but I mention them because I so rarely get it all in pre or on the flop. For normal variance to prevail I'd expect 20 winners or more to balance the losers, but I can only find 2 or 3 similar where I have actually won.

Position stats show that VPIP by seat goes from 9 to 22 in a a neat gradient. (PFR 9-15 on the same curve) Cold call goes from 0 to 2.5% on the button.

MP1 MP2 and MP3 all show big net losses (apart from the blinds which seem pretty acceptable). MP3 is the worst offender. All other seats have turned a profit, HJ CO and Button being the big moneymakers in that order. I find it really weird that my best and worst seat are right next to eachother.

It's hard to know what to make of this in isolation because the bulk of the losses are from premium hands (KK etc) that I would have played regardless of seat.

Big losing hands are in general:
22, 99, 77, AJs, KQs, A8s, AKs, A5o(!) small suited aces generally, QQ, JJ. Obviuosly its for me to try to tighten up each of these hands, but is there some pattern here? I would raise QQ, JJ, AKS, KQs, AJs and the pairs in all positions. A9o I would raise from MP3 onward, suited aces I would either limp behind or maybe raise from HJ onward.

My session reviews haven't really shown much up, and I am at a bit of a loss as to what to do. Judging my big hand play on the cold light of retrospect, I think I donked off about 3 BI's through bad play or tilt. I just don't know how that compares to others who go back and review their month.

So, the question is, what to do now. With a short roll, am I better off dropping back to NL25 and rebuilding for a while? Or is there enough evidence of bad variance to think that I am actually a winning player at this level but just had an unusually bad month and can ride it out?

Also, any suggestions as to what I should be looking at in order to tighten up? I usually play about 15/11 with a total AF of 2.2, although sessions vary between 18/15 and 12/7. I am already aware that I don't 3 bet enough and I have been working this into my game recently with good but fairly small ball results so far.

Only other thing I can see is that I seem to lose big to two types of players: ultra tight passive types and big flop smashing gamblers. 4 players of these types alone account for about 400 bucks of losses.

I'd appreciate any help you guys can give me. Please let me know if you want me to post any stats or anything. I haven't got my head around posting PT screenshots, can anyone advise (if needed)?

Thanks in advance