question from schneids' latest CR vid, BB defense with 44

[Schneids]

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yea I know what you mean, but even if we account for that (I tried adding the 2h to the board when looking at the flop play, and that doesn't even consider if villain picks up a draw on the turn) it's still super thin.

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Before thinking of it like that, consider there's 4BBs in the pot by the time the action gets to you on the flop (after the PFR bets and the SB calls). Now if we're going with the read that the SB has a ~7 outer (6 for overcards, 1 for a BD draw), and now sometimes the same for button, sometimes he's sharing outs with the SB, and sometimes the button has us beat, it amounts to becoming close if there's less money in the pot, but +EV when factoring in 4BBs already in the pot. And of all the ways to play the hand, checkraising the flop is the one which allows you the most clarity and ability to fold if behind (basically if anyone ever raises you on the turn or 3-bets the flop), over represent your hand and get 6 outers to fold on the turn, and garner you more action on future hands if you showdown this one.

I basically think of it like this: I'm beating SB, and for 1 more SB there's a 1 in 6 chance he's gonna turn me. My flop checkraise is basically getting me 5:1 on my money. I'm ahead of the PFR more than 1 in 5 times right, and a lot of the times when I'm not he'll let me know quickly because of the third guy in the pot. Even towards the bad end cases and they each have 10 outs, the turn hits either of them less than half the time.


A large factor for checkraising is that your hand is played strong enough, yet is overall weak enough, that if you're given a lot of action at any point, it's easy enough to get away from. Yet also, because of the drawy nature of the board, we may get an ace high to take an extra card off against us if the turn blanks a red 2, so, there's even more added EV in the postflop line.