Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL

[West]

Put another way, take any 75 year old Grandma you want, ask her to pick the NFL against the spread, and we'd expect in the long run her to get ~50% right, the same as if you flipped a coin to make picks. It's actually hard to truly be much of a "consistent loser" when you aren't factoring in the juice. A few weeks is just a small sample size. It's highly unlikely, for example, that the various sportswriters in the Enquirer over the years have a cumulative record as bad as say, 40% winners (or even close). That's why if you take Bill Simmons, or a Norman Chad in a season when they pick(ed) every single NFL game every week, they invariably end up with a record very close to .500. And you can't acually "act as the bookie" because you have to pay the juice to make your bets.