NL50: Overcard to TPTK falls on turn against very tight raiser.

[Sean Fraley]

I have about 20 hands w/ villain by this point, all from this table. I've had a run of good cards so have been rather aggressive lately, but every hand that has seen a showdown has been a winner including one just a few ago that just about doubled me up. Villain has been pretty unobtrusive but rather loose running about 55/6 with aggression stats of 0.6/1/1.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $48.75
BB: $9.25
UTG: $29.25
MP: $29
CO: $30.45
Hero (BTN): $87.65

Pre-Flop: dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="red">MP raises to $2</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $2, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.75) (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">MP bets $2.50</font>, Hero calls $2.50, UTG folds

Turn: ($11.75) (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $10.50</font>, Hero ???


The flop call is due to the fact that while I've got TPTK, against such a tight raiser I really just want to get to showdown and against so passive an opponent it stands a good chance of just getting called by hands that beat me instead of folding them.

As far as the turn the difference in bet size is what worries me. The flop bet is less than half of the pot, but the turn bet is close to pot. There are few situations that I see this happening, almost all of which are likely to beat me. Basically I really think that he either he had me beat on the flop and decided to bet more confidently once he saw that I wasn't necessarily afraid of him betting on this flop or that the king improved him two TPTK or better. Is folding this turn too weak or is the fact that he is so passive make this betting pattern a good sign that I should give it up?