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Passer rating
The current formula for passer rating in the NFL is:
=(MAX(MIN((COMP/ATT*100-30)/20,2.375),0)+MAX(MIN((YDS/ATT-3)/4,2.375),0)+MIN(TD/ATT*20,2.375)+MAX(2.375-INT/ATT*25,0))*100/6 Criticisms include:[*]It's too complex for the casual spectator to calculate.[*]The scale is arbitrary (out of 158.3).[*]The average is arbitrary (wikipedia says 78.9 for '00-'03).[*]Sacks/rushing yards aren't included.[*]The limits are arbitrary (77.5% completion percentage, 12.5 yards/attempt, 11.9% TD percentage, 9.5% INT percentage).[*]It sort of double counts completion percentage. DVOA accounts for some of this but is a fairly complex calculation. Why not use a formula such as this one I just made up: =MIN(MAX((YDS+TD*30-INT*45)*8/ATT,0),100) Based on 2006 data only:[*]It's a great deal simpler.[*]It's based on a range from 0-100.[*]The average for 2006 is ~50 (this will change over time, but whatever)[*]It has a (marginally) higher correlation with with winning.[*]The difference between team passer ratings has a (marginally) higher correlation with winning.[*]It's limited only by 0 and 100 overall (19 on each side in 2006 vs. 62 capped using current methodology). Sacks/rushing yards still aren't included. But then again sacks are more often a function of line play than being a good passer, and one could argue that rushing yards have no business in a passer rating calculation anyway. Again, DVOA is better than any number I could hope to come up with. But I think the NFL could use an easily calculated stat on a scale that makes sense for passer rating. Thoughts? |
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