NEED URGENT FANTASY BASEBALL ADVICE

[BobJoeJim]

With one day left in the season, I'm in first place by one point, in a 5x5 roto league. There are still several categories where positions could shift today.

The guy in second place has 198 homeruns, currently earning him 8.5 points, but he's tied with one other player, and has people at 200 and 201 in front of him, so he could potentially gain as many as 2.5 points there if he somehow hit four homers today (his lineup: Varitek, Ortiz, Frandsen, Mora, Vizquel, Ordonez, Nyjer Morgan, Ankiel, and Berkman). Meanwhile, I trail HIM by 3 RBIs, so a good day by my hitters could gain me a point there... but not if he makes his move in HRs (my lineup: Carlos Delgado, Jose Lopez, A-Rod, Peralta, Ichiro and Hawpe). In batting average, I'm one point ahead of him, so again, that's within reach, and he could gain a full point on me if he ties me there. In other words, first place is entirely up for grabs based on our offenses.

In pitching, he has NO chance of losing ground, and has no active pitchers today, but he is .01 behind someone in WHIP and that person is starting Glavine today, so he could gain another half point there...

So, if I don't play a starting pitcher, that's where we stand. If I did start a pitcher, though, I could gain half a point if he gets a win, could gain a full point if he gets 8 Ks, and could gain up to 2 points if he improves my WHIP by .01 (I'm at 1.33, three people are tied at 1.32). On the other hand, he could cost me a point if he drops my ERA by .04 (I'm at 3.94, someone is at 3.97), and could COST me up to 2 points if he drops my WHIP (there's also three people tied at 1.34).

Unfortunately I only have one pitcher I could put on the mound today... Jose bleeping Contreras.

So, do I let my one point lead ride and trust my offense to hold on against his, or do I let Contreras pitch against Nate Robertson and the Tigers and pray it doesn't blow up in my face? The game starts in ten minutes, WHAT DO I DO???