#21
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Re: My JJ is under fire too
Alright, this is what I got...
Assuming I am behind now, I have 10 outs to improve my hand: J (2) Q (4) 7 (4) I have 46 unseen cards, giving me about 3.6-to-1 shot of improving. At this point, when the action gets to me, I am getting 8-to-1 if I call the two bets here. I have correct odds to call now. But I don't really want to see a heart on the river, so I knock out 3 of my 10 outs. Now I have 7 outs, and I drop to 5.5-to-1 to make my hand. I still have the right odds so far. I also don't love my last J as an out, since it makes a potential straight. I take off one more out. I am now about 6.5-to-1. Even a non-heart Q is no guarantee, since (especially at .02/04) SB or BB could be sticking around with their KJ, trying to gutshot a win. But since I have two of the J's, a KJ hand is less likely. I am also aware that UTG can very well 3bet this if I call, and UTG+1 can cap. Assuming it gets capped, I would now be calling 4BBs on the turn. Pot size would be at 23BBs if I called and it got capped behind me. I would then be 11.5-to-1 to call the cap. And there is of course the potential for someone to already have a flush. I am unsure about how to factor in an already made flush, to my odds here. Ok, my brain hurts. I will stop at this point and wait for some replies. |
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