Stars 1k spot, board goes to hell

[Todd Terry]

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IMO, I think TT and 99 could be played this way.

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What hand could TT posibly get value from? You realize betting this river w/ TT is a bluff, right?

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Much less likely, but still possible, an underpair to the board.

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Something like 44 is a HELL of a lot more likely than TT, because 44 folds out a ton of better hands, whereas TT has more showdown value and folds out less hands which beat it.

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The A makes a flush somewhat less likely, since it would mean that Villain called preflop and then on a paired board with a non-nut flush draw.

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Why should he fold the flop w/ any flush draw? (he shouldn't)

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Not all players, even halfway decent ones, adhere as rigorously to the bluff/value bet dichotomy as the majority of the posters on this forum. In addition, river bet/don't bet when checked to decisions can be endlessly analyzed (if your opponent is on the 1st level, he'll think this, the 2nd, he'll think the opposite, the 3rd, back to what he thinks on the 1st, ad infinitum). For example, if a thinking player knows you'll fold QQ here (which is what you're advocating), then he'd bet TT all day long, because QQ is a decent chunk of your range with this line here. Moreover, there are many players who will bet when double checked to unless they have a good reason not to bet.

I think TT and 99 are less likely to bet the river than an underpair, but much more likely to call the flop c-bet.

While I agree that Villain shouldn't fold a FD on the flop, there are a substantial # of players who will say I'm not drawing to the nut flush, plus the board is paired so I'm not necessarily drawing to the winning hand, plus I'm probably only getting to see 1 more card from this EP raiser, so I fold.