Fun flop decision.

Pokey · #1 09-24-2007, 07:53 PM

The table is interesting. UTG is a complete imbecile: over a bit more than 400 hands, he's running 51/9 preflop and 1.7 postflop. He's also losing money at about $1 per hand, so he's not exactly doing a great job of it. The rest of the table is made up of decently good players with TAG or sLAG stats, and all of us are gunning for the guy on my right. Of course, I've got the best position in the house....

I sat down at the table fifteen minutes ago. I've gotten involved in very few hands. I've been caught stealing once in a blind-vs-blind situation but I only lost a little cash in the process. I haven't been involved in any serious shakeups yet.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $115.10
BB: $135.50
UTG: $104.65
Pokey (MP): $104.45
CO: $105.50
BTN: $104.40

Preflop: Pokey is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG raises to $2.00, Pokey calls $2.00, CO calls $2.00, 3 folds

People aren't really reraising much on this table, and I've got great implied odds if I hit. I'll dump it to a three-bet if it comes, but sometimes you've got to gamble to win, right?

Flop: ($7.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, Pokey bets $4.00, CO raises to $17.00, UTG raises all-in to $102.65, Pokey has a decision to make.

The preflop raiser checks, so I make a smallish bet to try and build a pot and disguise my hand for if-and-when I hit. CO (a decent TAG who runs 18/13 preflop and has a postflop aggression of nearly 5) makes a nearly pot-sized reraise to $17. UTG now wakes up and check-REraises all-in. It's almost $100 to me, the pot has almost $130 in it, I'm all-in if I call, and there's still a player to act behind me who also has me covered. Fun, fun!

So, what say you: is calling +EV, -EV, or about even?