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#23
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good post hand...
I thnk it comes down to what you see him doing on the flop.. I agree eighths PF range that jloc gave of jj+ and AK, AQ sometimes, I think TT might be nthere too some Plz forgive/ignore all the typeos I'm pretty fuckd rightnow and on my cell phone... But anyway, while that is a starting point its no that important I thnk that a good way to figure out what you should have done is to look at why you are now uncertain about what to do...I geuss by deffinition this comes down town uncertainty about villains range... Does he call a flop 3 bet with JJ+ ? And if so does he turnhands that you are ahead of into bluffs?? These are really the two relevant questions.... I think once you consider these you will ralize that your li e is good up until the river and that a river shove is much more+ EV than a check... His range post flop is all of his preflop hold he that include an A and sometimes his big PPs like KK (we obvi dont know the frequency) And so, assuming he calls all As (bc he thinks he a ahead) and sometimes calls his PPs for the same reason it comes down to (as far as your first river decision, of bet or check is concerned) how often he turns those big PPs into bluffs and how often he checks behind on the turn with a hand ahead of AQ and I tuink that everyone except the very best players call with worse here more often than they bluff with worse This logic, prima facia, seems to indicate that the best river line is then C/F, but I think that is wrong because I think that (bc of the relative frequencies) that at this point the value u gain by C/Fing is less than the value u would get by shoving the river... So basically...I think once you check folding is > calling but I dont think you should get to this point bc betting (shoving) is > than Cing assuming my assumptions about his post flop range are correct...) |
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