Putting all your chips at risk, how small of an edge?

[seke2]

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You can make an argument that you should take the gamble in the WSOP ME since the field is much stronger and you have less of an equity edge (if any edge at all) against the rest of the field.

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I would think it would be the opposite. Excluding the coinflips "early" part of the equation, if you are going to go far in this tournament with this rationale then you will have to survive a bunch of coinflips. 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2...... decreases your chances exponentially. I would think that in a field of this size that the field is much "weaker" not stronger, so you can use good post flop play to build a formidable stack.

I'm just thinking out loud here, but having to survive multiple coinflips throughout is SEVERELY -EV. Thoughts?

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There's no question that it's severly -EV to have to survive flip after flip. However, in the WSOP ME field, you have to beat out, lets say, 1000 players who are legitimately professionals who are probably better than you, or at least have a big edge just from having more experience playing live in big money events. I can't imagine anyone without significant major tournament experience truly has an equity edge in the WSOP ME in a field with hundreds of professionals.

So while I'm playing on the internet in a $22 tournament, I think I probably have 2-3x buyin in equity based on my skill, in the WSOP ME I'd feel that I had 0 equity edge at best. Accordingly, I NEED to take any sort of coinflip because I can't expect to hold onto my chips for later spots where my skill edge will get me a highly +EV spot.

The real question comes down to the size (if it exists) of the equity edge for someone, like one of us, who plays mostly online at low-medium buyins when we enter the WSOP ME with a field full of professionals.

Lets say there are 6000 players.

Let's say 1000 of those are professional or semi-pros who play a fair number of major live cash events.

2000 of those are solid players like 2+2'ers who know the game and managed to qualify online.

3000 players are random luckboxes.

That puts 60m in play.

I've heard it suggested that pros feel that their skill edge gives them about 4x their buyin in equity.

So lets say the 1000s pros have 10m of that equity.

Lets say the 3000 luckboxes have an average of .75 buyin in equity, since they have a skill deficit. That's 22.5m of equity.

That leaves 27.5m equity for the 2000 skilled non-professional/intelligent internet type players. Each of those players would have about 13750 in equity.

I guess those assumptions are in the general ballpark, so I suppose your random solid 2+2'er would have a slight equity edge, even in the WSOP ME.