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OK so hero (idiot) had just played a pot with 99, raising on button after two limpers and taking down a J high board for a small-medium size pot.
Two hands later hero has 99 in HJ. Villians: UTG--hasn't raised anything pre-flop, even turns over KK. Will make some plays (some weird) but only on the big streets. MP: Pretty ABC, even is studying a pre-flop hand chart he home made. Has not raised lightly. BB: Big stack at the table. Have not seen him 3 bet pre-flop in 2 hours. In fact have only seen two on the whole table. Hero 99 in HJ UTG calls, MP raises, hero calls (flame away), BB 3 bets, UTG BACKRAISES to 4 bets, MP caps (5 bets at CP). Rest fold. Hero goes into tank. Hero folds based on 1. Reads. Raise fest is out of the blue. Hero reads that two if not all three hands are over pairs. 2. Based on 3 overpairs, hero's crude math says he's approaching 10:1 against due to odds that a set of 9s wont win (30% of time?????), even at 2 overpairs chance for costly negative price of hitting and losing seems high. Save the raise or fold lecture. Hero knows. What opinion of folding for 3 bets more to the cap? |
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