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Old 09-17-2007, 10:03 AM
Hattifnatt Hattifnatt is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: FT
Posts: 8,202
Default Re: Arr in?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I push, if the flop was QJx instead of QJT I woulda folded vs an uknown.

[/ QUOTE ]
You would what?


Board: Qh Jh Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.124% 71.73% 04.40% 102255 6267.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 23.876% 19.48% 04.40% 27771 6267.00 { KK }


Board: Qh Jh 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.282% 50.35% 01.94% 80745 3105.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 47.718% 45.78% 01.94% 73425 3105.00 { KK }

[/ QUOTE ]
my first instinct was actually insta-fold but changed my mind. not sure but I think folding might be best. if proceeding calling and calling any turn might be the wtg. if pushing is a mistake its not a huge mistake though.

regarding my QJx comment the equity vs this range of course is important, but for it to be 100% relevant the $240 bet should be all-in and he should play all the hands this way. for ex I dont think its that likely he bets close to pot with AK or TT (or something like 99-88 for that matter).

he also is much more likely to play like this with AQ on the QJx than on the QJT. if he 3-bet with air he is also more likely to fire the QJx flop.

another, less relevant aspect was that if you push on QJx the risk of drawing dead (or v close to it) is WAY higher than on the QJT.

if you think I am off here you are very welcome to say that but I hope you come with some eloboratation not just "you are wrong".
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