Steve Fossett and My Baye's Coincidence Theory

[Sephus]

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But what about if they were told that 95% of the land was searched thoroughly?(And that one spot of land is as likely as any other spot to contain the accident) Given that information only, they should multiply the chances of a stunt, whatever they were, by 20.

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if they thought the chances were 10%, they should expect a stunt 200% of the time.