#9
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Re: Easy way to play 88 UTG here?
If you push and isolate, you are 69% against a random hand. There will be 6700 in the pot, so your expected gain is 3000.
There are 7 players to act. Let us assume that JJ-AA and AQs, AK are calling. Assume for simplification only one caller and caller has you covered. You are 28.5% to win the main pot and 35% to win the side pot. The main pot is 8300 and your expected win is 2365. The side pot has 26800 and your expected in is 9380. Total expected win if called is 11740. Total net loss if called is 3360. The calling range I gave happens 22/661 of the time for each player, so 154/661 for 7 players, less with some duplication, so you get called about 22% of the time. So assuming a tight calling range, the push is clearly cEV+ compared to folding. I think this is an accurate range due to the bubble and the push looking stronger with the BB allin. I am not certain whether limping or miniraising is better than pushing, but I was wrong previously, folding is bad, even with the BB allin. The push is only playable here because the large ante live gives you a big expected gain by isolating even if you don't steal. |
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