the "What the [censored] am I trying to ask here?" post.

[MyPTBB100isPOOP]

Really may be way off base here, but oh well.

Lest assume that on a board of AcKcQdJd9h villian could only have a set/air and we have 22.
On river villian bets 100 into 100 pot, so 33% of his range needs to be a bluff for us to breakeven.
If we plug the sets into pokerstove, we see that they make up 2.3% of all hands.
I assume this means we need to find an additional 1.15% hands he would bluff with to call here.
So we decide he is betting: 76s,65s,54s,43s and now 33% of his hands are bluffs, we can call.
Am i right so far?


This is where i become greatly confused: Which thought is more accurate?

Because 1 of each of the set cards is out on the board, he can only actually have 3 combinations of each pair. Giving him 15 possible hands that arent bluffs. Meaning we need to find 7.5 different hands that he would bet with as a bluff.

OR

Because he can only actually be holding any one combination at a time, he can only have 5 possible hands that arent bluffs. Meaning we need to find 2.5 different hands that he woudl bet with as a bluff.

I was going to expand on this and ask another question, which was basically the same thoughts but in relation to the suited cards, and off suited cards that he would be bluffing with, but i feel that I may be way out in left field on this one, and want to see if i can get some response B4 posting any further. Is it crazy that I am even thinking about this process? If not am i going about it the wrong way?