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How badly is this bookie screwing up with his odds?
And what should the true odds be?
Here is a cut and paste from an EM I sent a friend. It involves a friend who is using a local bookie. Said bookie usually uses Vegas' lines. I hope this is understandable. I'm just wondering if I'm viewing this correctly, and how much the bookie is getting the wrong end of it giving 10/1. I think I'll post in the sports betting section also. ------------------------------------------------------ Vegas offers 10/1 odds on correctly picking a 4 - bet parlay. Meaning, if you take the Vikes, Saints, Texans, and 49ers, say, and they each cover, you get a 10/1 return on your dough. ( By the way, aren't the true odds ~16-1? i.e. (.5) (.5) (.5) (.5) = .0625 = 16/1? ) This bookie, however, is offering the same 10/1 odds on 4 bet parlays that include halftime bets. In other words, you can take the Vikes to win the first and second halves of their game, and ditto the Saints, and those are your 4 bets. But of course they are related events ( The Vikes are a lot more likely to cover if they are ahead 22-0 at the half. Etc Etc.) So instead of 4 unrelated events, the bookie is giving those odds on related events. The beauty of it is, my friend isn't even bothering picking games any more. He's just using the law of large numbers....so if Vegas says the Colts are -6 in the first half and -12 for the game, he's just gonna flip a coin and take them to win or lose both halves. Then he'll do the same with some other team, and bang, there's his 4- bet parlay. |
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