Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question

[yellowjack]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, i thought that math was actually harder.

So for and 8 person headsup tournament you have to win 3 matches. If you win on match 1 in 5 times that means
5 x 5 x 5 = 125
So you will win 1 time in 125 or .008% of the time.
And for a 16 person
5 x 5 x 5 x 5 = 625
So thats 1 time in 625 tries or .00016% of the time.

Now this numbers do seem a little to slim to me. Could someone explain why my very simple math is wrong, or prove why i am correct.
And could some pokerstove the handranges that i put in against and completely random hand. I'd like to see the exact odds of winning, by pushing ever hand, obviously this doesn't take into account the amount of chips won by the folding of the 'pro' player and how this may increase the odds slightly for the donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

1/125 != 0.008%.
1/125 = 0.008 = 0.8%

That said, the chances of winning a HU match by pushing AI PF every hand is actually much closer to 1/3. You can work out the rest.