I'm bored

[Niediam]

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I think you would need to find a player who has a very high bluff-raising/misplaced raising frequency before making a bet-call correct.

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What exactly is 'very high'?

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That's for the math to show.

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B/f isn't great because you will fold to many winners. If you had a very good read on this guy and you were sure he wouldn't raise as a bluff or with a weaker hand that you beat then folding would be fine. But here it's just impossible for you to know that.

C/c isn't good because there are a ton of hands that villian will call a bet with that he won't bet himself that we beat.

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This line just isn't very consistent. You think he's going to raise the river with lots of bad hands as a bluff or whatever, but you don't think he's going to bet if I check to him.

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Wow. It's not inconsistant at all. That's like saying somebody can't fold 72o and still raise AA preflop bcause they either raise hands or they don't. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I don't think that villian raises a ton. But the river card is the scariest possible card that could fall. Even marginal players understand what a scare card is. Plus he could have hit a weaker ace and be raising for value. Counting the rake we have to be good here around 1 in 7. It's hard for me to imagine that this isn't the case.

If villian has something like a pair of sixes there isn't much of a reason for him to bluff because it's not so likely that we fold hands that he beats. But if he had something like JT he may bluff trying to get us to fold queen or king high.