Hellmuth 27 Bluff Makes Matusow Fold KK

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I see it like this... Matasow gets KK and thinks about what a big payday he gets on this hand. "OOOOH, Phil's raising.... my chance to suck him in".

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If Matusow 4-bets there he's ONLY getting action from AA. Hellmuth isn't going to put his whole stack in with QQ or worse, even if he thinks Matusow would 4-bet weak sometimes.

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I don't believe he ever thought about Phil having a set of Q's or J's until the bet on the river when the $40K bet is NOT something that Phil ever does on a straight bluff. Up to that point, he was just slow-playing, waiting to crack Helmuth. He smooth called the raises and bets on the flop and turn hoping to raise Phil on the river. Typically, Mikey always waits too long, too greedy. If the board doesn't pair the 6, Mikey surely raises. But the real reason he folds on the river is he just couldn't live with himself if he paid off $40K on trips for Phil. He wanted to get credit for making a huge laydown. That's why he mucked face up. And he's right about one point, Phil almost never bluffs on the river after 2 attempted bluffs. But he failed to realize that Phl could ONLY win that way. Out-thunk himself into what I thought was the woest play I've ever seen on HSP.

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I didn't see it this way at all. I think Matusow was trying to keep the pot small. That Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] flop is a really bad one for Mike. QQ got there, JJ got there, AA still has you beat. Hellmuth isn't reraising with AK, TT or worse (JJ is even a stretch for him). I think he realized Hellmuth could have 72 there as well as the big hands, so when Phil checked the flop (which he'll do with strong and weak hands alike) he checked behind. Way ahead/way behind.

On the turn Phil leads strong ($17k into $15k) and Matusow knows that Hellmuth doesn't bet big very often, so he just calls. Good play. It's still a WA/WB situation, so you have to exercise pot control there and just close the action.

The river pairs the 6, and I have no idea why you'd think Matusow would raise on a different river. The 6 changes nothing. Besides, what worse hand possibly calls a river raise? Phil bets $40k into $49k. Matusow realizes Phil never bets big on the river without a hand, so he folds face up. If this hand got posted on the High Stakes Forum, everybody and their mother would've said instafold, even if they knew about the 72 prop.

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Phil comes off looking great, but in reality, he should have known EXACTLY where Mike was at (and probably did) and his bet on the river is actually horrible, because if Mike did IN FACT have an over pair to the board, Mike HAS to call and Phil knows that.

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I believed Phil put Mike on a fairly strong hand when he called the big bet on the turn. Perhaps AQ, but perhaps AA, KK, maybe QJ, and perhaps a set. I think Matusow would've called the preflop reraise with any hand he raised with because he has position and it's Hellmuth. On the river Hellmuth knows that Matusow knows that he never (or maybe almost never) bets strong without a hand, and he never fires a 3rd barrel. He has to be confident Matusow will throw away AA, KK, AQ, and now QJ, and maybe he even makes a super laydown with 88 or 66. I think Phil played this hand very well and did a great job of using his image to his advantage.