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You have played 2000 hands. Out of that you can derive EV BB/100h range with some statistical confidence. I.e. I one can calculate with 95% conf level that our BB/100h is e.g. between -0.5BB and 2BB / 100 hands.
Now let's say the only thing you did in these 2000 hands was all-in or fold (to simplify the things). For some of the hands that you were allin you got called => game went to showdown, and you know the cards with which you were called. Now, you can calculate for all these all in confontations (for which you know opponents cards) how much money you made, and how much you were expected to make. My question is: How can I transfer this information back to the original problem? I.e. if I still have my 2000 hands history only, but take into account with what hands my allins were called, and what was the expected profit vs the actuall outcome; and I want again (say with 95% statistic confidence) to find what is my BB/100h range (that considers the additional luck involved). I should have now a better (more accurate) estimation, but what is the way to find this out. I post this particular problem and not any generalization, I simply want by looking at this step by step to understand how you approach it. Thanks _________________ indiana |
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