The final truth about down swings.

[steamboatin]

I think your post is dead on but I am going to disagree with a portion of this reply.

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Even more rare than the royal flush is a player with no idea who starts playing and becomes a long-term winning player.

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I think you have it exactly backwards. I think people get interested in Poker, and then learn to beat the game. Poker pretty much has to be a learn as you go game, because it is impossible to know what you don't know. You have to play some before you learn enough to ask the right questions and figure out what you need to learn. There is an old saying that Winners are losers that got angry. I believe we start playing and then if we want to win badly enough, we do what it takes to learn.

I am also certain that more downswings are caused by poor play than by normal variance. I have caught myself blaming variance and then later discovering that I was playing badly.

I thing your estimate of half the people here being losers is very close to the mark. I am certain that we have the highest percentage of winners of any group on the planet but if only 5% of players are long term winners, it would be very optimistic to think that most of us are long term winners.