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On buying accounts and why you should care
I made a post on the High Stakes forum about this topic but didn't have any luck (no replies, too theoretical?, non-important topic?). So I decided to post it on the Poker Theory forum and have better luck, I got one reply [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] by Dr. Zebra.
<font color="green"> My question was: </font> Lets suppose you have an average stack on the Sunday Million with 18 people left, and you're a winner player, lets say 50% ROI. A break even player (0% ROI) is the chip leader, with about 1/4 of the chips in play. Now a good player, lets say one with a 100% ROI buys the account of the mediocre break even player and starts playing the last 2 tables. Using numbers from the last Sunday million 1st $185,760 2nd $96,755 3rd $69,628 9th $8,009 10-18th $5,942 How this transaction affects your equity? How much money do you lose because of the transaction? <font color="green"> Here is his answer </font> : ok. let's start off with a few unrealistic assumptions: 1. let's simplify some of the numbers: payouts are 200k, 100k, 70k, 50k, 40k, 30k, 20k, 12k, 8k, and 9 spots at 6k each. 2. the 18 players have equal chips 3. 17 people average 50% ROI and one person averaged 0% ROI and now is someone who averages 100% ROI 4. There are exactly 2000 entrants for 500+30 and 200 pay the results should be nearly obvious because of the oversimplification, but i think the scratch work below is correct in case you want to loosen the assumptions (ie make the field more diverse...) this is the pre-deal equity for a random 50% ROI player with these assumptions: 584k*[(1.5)(530)-E(416k/182))/(584k/18+530)]/ [17*((1.5)(530)-E(416k/182))/(584k/18+530))+(1)(530)-F(416k/182))/(584k/18+530)] where E and F are the expressions = (1+ROI)(Buyin)/(TotalPrizePool/entrants + Buyin) your new equity is: 584k*[(1.5)(530)-E(416k/182))/(584k/18+530)]/ [17*((1.5)(530)-E(416k/182))/(584k/18+530))+(2)(530)-F(416k/182))/(584k/18+530)] which simplifies to: pre-deal: 33,056.70 postdeal: 31,854.30 Hopefully this generates some good discussion between the community David |
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