i'm embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol

[Caldarooni]

Keep in mind the best singers don't always last. Gedeon had a much better voice that both Kevin and Bucky but was booted last night.

Last year, Scott Savol stuck around week after week as support poured in for various reasons (some sites tried to garner votes for the worst contestant, others kept voting for Scott to spite Simon).

My point is that just because someone is a clearly a better singer than another contestant does not mean they will last longer than that contestant. This is the key to making money on this show and the fact that many who bet ignore.

My main concern about someone like Elliot is that he will not garner enough support to outlast some of the more charasmatic singers like Kellie and Paris.

FWIW I think the final 2 are Taylor and Katherine with McPhee being your next American Idol. Chris is certainly a factor, and is the favorite going into the final 12, but there are reasons to doubt he will win this competition.

My 2 cents.