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how useful/novel would this software tool be?
I am thinking about developing some software tools that could help a lot with some of the analysis that people try to do here, but I want to get a sense of how useful people really think it would be or if there is anything else out there like it.
What I have noticed is that there are a lot of tricky situations that come up where you have a decent read on your opponent, but it is still not clear what to do. For example, you have an overpair like JJ in position on the turn and your opponent has been betting into you. You are not sure whether to raise him all in, call him down, or fold. Well, suppose you could determine the following parameters: probability I am beat right now, how many outs I have if I am beat, how many outs he has if I am ahead, how many of those out I will be able to fold to on the river, probability he will bluff if he misses his outs, size of his bluff if he bluffs, effective stack sizes. Then you can plug those into a formula and you will know exactly what you should do. I wrote the code for this and I am already discovering some cool stuff. There are some other situations I have been thinking about. For example, being out of position on the river with a decent hand and not sure whether to lead out, check-call, or check-fold. Or having a huge draw on the flop and not sure whether to push all in or see the next card. Both of these can be boiled down to formulas a lot of the time. Can anyone think of other situations like this? How useful do you think this tool would be? A lot of hands would need to be simplified to be plugged into a tool like this, but that seems OK. Even if you can't solve very specific hand exactly, it should allow you to get a better feel for the mathematical landscape of the game. This could be thought of as a complement to Pokerstove. With Pokerstove, you are dealing with exact ranges of hands instead of abstract situations. But it is limited in the sense that you assume you are just going to go all in with you hand against their range and see what happens. Maybe this could be combined with Pokerstove somehow. |
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