Variance revisited HUCASH vs HUTRN

[omgwtfnoway]

Tnixon, i think your understanding of the mathematical definition of variance is way off and it's the reason you're having so much trouble rationalizing this concept.

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Playing a $100 stack at 0.5/1 blinds is clearly going to be lower variance than playing a $100 stack at 10/20 blinds

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this is wrong because there are fewer possible outcomes to the hand the shorter your stack is. since every possible outcome has some associated probability more possible outcomes=higher variance.

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Open-pushing with A5 is a high variance move.

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this is true if and only if the stacks are deep.

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Since you don't sound a complete idiot, I'm going to assume that you're *not* trying to say what it sounds like you're trying to say here, that the swings due to variance will be less than a single buyin for a 60% winner. (which is obviously not true

[/ QUOTE ] you're right, i'm not trying to say that, i'm trying to help you to understand that the range of possible outcomes is much more tightly centered around your expected value, thus lowering variance.

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Also, the examples from large-field tourneys are pretty irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]they're not irrelevant, i was giving another example of how your individual results can differ wildly from expected results. when these wildly differing values are possible is when variance is highest.

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You seem to be claiming here that players will get their stacks all-in much more frequently in cash games as opposed to tournaments.


[/ QUOTE ] i'm not claiming this, i agree with you that in tourney endgame you're more likely to see an allin pot. what i was trying to demonstrate is that a player can easily win half a buyin or more in a single hand, when his edge on any given hand is a fraction of a single big blind.

i hope this helps.