TTT 5/T

[berserk]

I'm a big fan of river check raises for value, but I don't like it in this spot where villain can have you beat and you will be stuck. People talking about villain having 99, if hero led villain would always raise that and you win the same amount. He's simply not going to call a river check-raise with something like AJ, and this player I don't see bluffing the river with air extremely often (he's a bit weak tight). So by leading I think you would get a similar amount of value from most of his hands and avoid losing a whole stack if he backdoored a straight (although I would assume he would 2 barrel KQ almost always). I would like it if the river were a card from 2-8.