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Ever have brain farts? I'm having one now.
Suppose you are on a gutshot draw to the nuts after the turn card comes. This is the only way you win. Pot is $420 4 cards help out of 46 = 1 in 11.5, or 10.5 to 1 to hit Your opponent bets all in $80 - giving you odds of 500:80 or 6.25:1. Do you call? If you fold, you give up 4/46*500 = $43.48 in equity If you call $80, you give up 42/46*$80 = $73.04, but now have the right to 4/46*500 or $43.48, so you only lose ($73.04-$43.48)=$29.56? In other words, it's a losing situation, but you will lose less by calling? What am I missing? |
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