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using excel, i entered 200 cells of =NORMINV(RAND(),3,30)
i believe that generates a random distribution of numbers which would imitate that of a player who's winrate is 3bb/100 and has a variance of 30bb/100. i'm not sure if that variance is accurate for a typical player, its what i remember mine to be. 200 cells means 20,000 hands. the average winrate after that many hands is 600bb. here's a list of trials of actual wins: 648 1659 1357 730 1117 1000 707 -394 1421 494 356 371 826 919 1393 523 209 767 717 240 that's ONE losing streak after 20,000 hands out of 20. how can people say that good players still have 100k hand breakeven stretches? so is this experiment not accurate for some reason? or are all downswings a result of bad play moreso than bad luck? |
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