A very interesting spot-- 50nl

[BahhGawd]

Dex,

You play good. But, having played with you, I know for a fact that you are thinking way more about these hands than pretty much all of the multi-tabling regulars. And while it will probably help you as you progress, it might seriously be a negative quality to have at this level, as you're often going to give people credit for moves that they're not capable of making.

I don't know your history with villain here (but from your description, my guess is that it is St4kesIsHigh... how close am I?)... particularly, how you've responded to his 4betting. If he knows you're 3betting him light, but have a real tight 4bet calling range, than it makes sense that his calling range here contains all pairs, even QQ+.

But as a 21/19, his range probably includes all suited connectors as well, especially in position as here.

I agree that he is floating this flop with a majority of pairs. Your flop bet is incredibly standard and your range is pretty much everything you've 3bet with.

But, after your flop bet, the pot size is pretty substantial, which makes me believe that any of the flush draws that have enough equity for villain to play aggressively(AsKs, 6s7s, 6s8s), he is going to do so on this flop, where he has substantial fold equity against your range.

Once he just calls the flop, I think you can eliminate most of those draws from his range, leaving some pocket pairs, 45,67, naked flush draws, sets and overpairs.

Once you bet the turn, regardless of how light you feel you can double barrel here, you are for all intents and purposes committing yourself to the hand. Therefore, villain's shove is definitely for straight value. There is absolutely no reason to believe that you are going to get away from your hand, so semibluffing here would not make any sense.

The question you need to answer is how light does villain think you are valuebetting here? Unless you have some sick history, I don't think he's doing it with a hand worse than JJ. I'm thinking 45, 44, 55, 77, QQ, KK, AA, and possibly 5s7s -- which I feel is the only spade hand to shove turn which does not shove flop. For sakes of adding a bluff (lol), I guess you can even throw 67 or 66 into the range and crunch your #s to see how a call looks.

But... vs a villain with these numbers... If you're even able to consider being ahead vs his shoving range here, than betting this turn is a huge mistake and check/raising allin is definitely a much better play.

Anyways, please post results.