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A friend of mine is on a downswing that would defy all odds of being anymore than .01% likely if he has an assumed edge. He argues that since he's down this much that its proof that confidence intervals saying he should only be down that much .01% of the time is inaccurate. Also says that constructing and calculating confidence intervals that estimate the likelihood of losing a certain # of buyins with an assumed winrate/std deviation can't be done with any accuracy. He says you can't just chose some # of buyins to be down and calculate the odds of being down that much. So, i'm asking you mathameticians, can you?
I showed him a risk of ruin calculator and the following convo ensues: Him (9:34:14 PM): those link su sent me Him (9:34:16 PM): dont prove anything Him (9:34:23 PM): sdid u look at the equation for them? Him (9:34:31 PM): closed the im windoe lats night so dont have the link Him (9:34:35 PM): but it weas something like Him (9:34:57 PM): wr x br -(sd x sd) Him (9:35:01 PM): thats wrong Him (9:35:04 PM): but its something like that Him (9:35:13 PM): which cant possibly be accurate Me (9:48:35 PM): lol Me (9:48:37 PM): cant be accurate? Me (9:48:44 PM): and u say this why? Him (9:48:45 PM): link me again Him (9:48:49 PM): so i can get the exact queation Me (9:48:50 PM): because u know how the forumla works? Me (9:49:06 PM): its a risk of ruin calculator Me (9:49:10 PM): theres plenty of them Him (9:50:23 PM): here the equation Him (9:50:34 PM): e-2 x WR x BR ÷ (SD x SD) Him (9:50:39 PM): e = 2.72 Him (9:50:50 PM): explain to me how that could possibly Him (9:50:52 PM): be accurate Him (9:50:55 PM): in something as varying as poker Me (9:50:59 PM): ? Me (9:51:00 PM): lol Me (9:51:02 PM): do u ev en know what Me (9:51:03 PM): E is? Him (9:51:26 PM): a costant number Me (9:51:31 PM): ..... Me (9:51:34 PM): do u know what it represents? Him (9:51:41 PM): no Me (9:51:50 PM): so u dont know what it represents but say it cant be accurate Me (9:51:51 PM): :/ Him (9:51:59 PM): because ur assignign a constan tnumber Him (9:52:03 PM): to something hugely varying Him (9:53:34 PM): look at the rest of equation Him (9:53:51 PM): e-2 x WR x BR ÷ (SD x SD) Him (9:53:59 PM): winrate x br /(sd x sd) Him (9:54:08 PM): just explain to me Him (9:54:11 PM): how that can accuratly model Him (9:54:14 PM): the varianc ein poker Him (9:58:09 PM): i know what it represents Him (9:58:12 PM): eveyrthing except the e Him (9:58:42 PM): even without knowing exactly what e is Him (9:58:45 PM): the fact that its a constant Him (9:58:56 PM): makes me hard to regard it So.... am I wrong here? What does E represent? And can you calculate the % chance of being down a certain # of buyins over a certain # of hands given a winrate an std deviation? |
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