200: 99 Flops a Set on Crappy Board

[Warren Harding]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to put my thoughts out here to be discussed.

I called here, and here was/is my thinking?

I'm not one to play "scared poker", but I'm trying to apply what I'm learning in PNLHE here.

First of all, we can't be overly happy with our hand here. There are actually 51 combos that are made hands that beat us. There are also a decent number of draws possible that we are about 40% against as well. This can easily be 60 hands against which we are dogs. Any of these will fit at least 2 of my 3 opponents ranges.

On top of this, there's 25% of the deck I'm not wanting to see hit. I know some would say this is the reason to raise, but let's hold off on that for a moment. Also, a side note, I thought there was something in this book about a lot of cards that can hurt your hand being a reason to sometimes hold back on the flop...but I can't find it right now.

Also, we need to consider our hand against our opponent's all in range...not just their range, but what shape will we be in if we get all in. Against two of my 3 opponents, UTG and button, I'm a dog the vast majority of the time we get all in. However, probably not more than a 2:1 dog.

My hand isn't such where I'm saying "I'm committed". Granted, if I could get all in with the sb here, I would. So, in my mind, if I get all in here against 2 of 3 of my opponents, it's with great reluctance.

In terms of commitment, a raise from me for the $50 range puts in 1/3 of my starting stack, so I really need to examine this move carefully. I do not want to put in here and then be folding to button or UTG. However, at that point, I would most likely be "reluctantly committed". To quote from page 64 "When you are reluctantly committed, look for alternative betting lines that increase your expectation, and consider keeping the pot small."

Now, if I just call here, I can actually use my position to my advantage to gain more information and make a better commitment decision either on the flop (if button raises) or on the turn. I would be at the commitment threshold on the turn (assuming button does not raise) and can then more clearly maximize my expectation.

Anyway, that's where I'm at with it. Rip away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some serious nuances there. Good points, now I'm not sure about my advice. It reminds me of our limit days when we'd sometimes have to hold back on the flop because the turn card would drastically alter our expectation, while the bigger betot + blank allowed us to extract value better. But in that case, we had no ability to offer incorrect odds to drawers on the flop. We have that now, and it's actually cheaper on the flop than waiting for the turn (pot will be bigger and SB might lead a serious bet). Plus, as I mentioned, we can PSB without getting committed (theoretically).

I share your fear of getting it AI against both opponents, and the same goes if we bet the $34 and they both call. But, our opponents are loose, the aggressive one is betting weakly and the passive one is calling. These data suggest wide open ranges for both, not just the 60 possibilities that really suck. I think if we capture the initiative on the flop, especially against one opponent, we can comfortably draw value.