explain to me the mathematics of a blocking bet

[PantsOnFire]

I think the value of a blocking bet is not so much as an isolated play but as a combination of your play.

If we look at the size of the blocking bet, it is small and is similar to two bets, the probe bet and the post oak bluff.

If you can lay out these bets at different times plus throw in small value bets, you can disguise your blocking bet.

This obviously only works against observant opponents. So on the flop or the turn, a 1/3 pot bet by you could be a probe bet, a small value bet with a big hand, or a blocking bet to see another card cheaply. And on the river, a 1/3 pot bet could be a small value bet, a blocking bet or a post oak bluff.

If you can manage to mix up your play enough so that opponents aren't sure what you are up to, you blocking bets will be more successful. But then again, so will your other small bets.

Now is where the fun begins. Players will try to come back at you if they suspect a probe or blocking bet. If you have established that you can value bet small, now a re-raise will really get them thinking. On the other hand, if they are picking off your blocking or probe bets, the wait and make a small value bet and trap them for their raise.

I don't play enough with really good players so I rarely use the blocking bet. It usually goes right over their head. The only thing that works with these guys is to consistently value bet and cbet 2/3 pot and then throw out a 1/3 pot bet and see what happens.

This is the most complex game in the world so if I even go half of this right, I'd be surprised.