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I've never been too great at the mathematical aspect of the game but am looking to figure out something that may have a simple solution i'm overlooking.
I'm basically trying to figure out if a play is +EV or not given a certain range. The situation is: A player that I know is capable of 3 betting a pretty decent range 3 bets from the big blind after I raise AQo from the button. I raise A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] to $18 pf and am 3 bet by villain to $50 straight. I call the 3 bet intending to shove a good flop. Flop($100): K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] He bets out $70 into the $100 pot and I move all in for a total of $338. I realize that i'm risking $338 of mine to win $170 so I would need to win this 2/3 of the time to at least break even but i'm unsure how to figure out if this play is +EV using a pokerstove range of hands. If I assume he folds out all hands but AA/KK/AK and his raising range is AA-88, AJo+, ATs+, KQ, suited connectors and occasional random steals... then how do I find out if i'm actually going to be winning this 66%+ of the time? Kind of confused on how to go about this. |
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