Theory Time with MJ - Creating Profitable Situations With a Short Stac

[MJBuddy]

We're nuts, we're idiots, we're online poker players.

What does this mean? It means we make money from nuts, idiots, and people who call themselves poker players.


Ok that was irrelevant to what I’m going to discuss here today, but it sounded fun in my head and the things that sound fun in my head are what I open conversations with.

So on topic: We play online poker. Yes I’m reminding you of this. If you needed to be reminded, then this topic is going to be a bit too complicated. This was the test, did you pass?

I know one of you didn’t. Stop bullshitting.


Anyway, so why does the fact that we play poker online matter? Because online MTTs typically run with fast structures with small stacks and very little room for creative play compared to high buy-in, live events.
This means, more times than not, you will become the dreaded short stack. There’s nothing wrong with not making it to short stack. Busting in a cooler, suckout, etc is perfectly fine, but when you lose a hand and end up with an M of 7 or 8, with 12 BB and Harrington says play looser and more aggressive but you can’t justify open raising with anything because if you get called you’re committed to any pot and if you get reraised you’re committed and if it’s a full moon you’re committed and if someone raises light on your BB you’re committed and if a black cat crosses the street and curls up counter-clockwise on your bed JUST AS your second card is dealt, you sir, are COMMITTED.


So how the hell are you going to get chips before you’re blinded into oblivion or worse, 0 FE against the blinds?
I’m going to start off by denouncing Harrington’s zone theories. Not because they are bad, or because they don’t work theoretically, but because online is a different animal than live play. A loose, slutty animal by comparison. Think bonobos (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonobos), just with computers. Anyway, pushing A9 UTG sounds fun and cool and exciting. But in actuality you’re going to get called online. Now you might ask, “isn’t that good? A9 isn’t garbage with a short stack!” Yes it is. A9 is as good UTG with a short stack as it is with a medium stack. It took me a long time to figure this out – lots of bubbles in 45 mans at FTs when I jammed that weak Ace MP and got called and cursed my luck. In actuality there is a better way!

Few Key points in all of this:

1. Aces are dangerous anywhere but LP.

2. Showing bad hands when you get called jamming pre-flop makes you look loose.

3. Most players don’t take position into account with regards to short stack play, thanks to Harrington’s advice that all-in vigorous trumps position and being all in changes your positional mechanics post-flop.

4. Limps are weak. UTG limps are less weak, but still weak. MP limps may as well be 23o to you. Of course this isn’t always true, and I’ve had “loves to slowplay” reads on people. GENERALLY, limps are weak. When you’re short stack, you’re taking big risks to get back in the game, so you work on generalities. It’s fine to assume certain things based on observations made at the table, however.

5. Raises are serious, regardless of your stack. You can’t get involved when a nit raises and has you covered.

6. Despite what sagely advice your father, mother, pastor, or conservative friends have said, Always Jam loose, and only call tight.

So here we have a few things to outline everything I’ve learned, especially in 45 mans where SS FT play is standard.

The shorter the stack you have, the closer you should treat your two cards. We treat AK like KK-AA. We treat AQ like AK and eventually like QQ-KK. We treat KQ like QQ-KK, etc. as our stacks become nothingness in order to get some chips in with fold equity and jam for value against wider ranges.


Oh, and here’s the part where this goes from “no [censored], thanks for wasting my time” to “huh?”

Play your connecting cards like pocket pairs.

Why’s that? Because you have a better chance of not being dominated, you have huge fold equity LP, and you have a damn short stack. Use the same logic as before. If AK becomes KK-AA, why doesn’t 98s become 88-99?

Typically we play our connecting cards like their lower card. We play AK like KK, refusing to fold it except for the deepest of situations. We play AQ like QQ as the blinds begin to catch us.

Generally, I play my suited cards like the lower of the two cards, and my unsuited cards like 1 lower than that (Playing 87s like 77, and playing 87o like 66).

I detest open jamming from UTG with anything other than premium hands. That said, most of this strategy is MP-LP moves you can make that are nearly always +EV at the time when you absolutely must take the smallest of edges to double up or increase your stack.

Some basic examples to help clarify:

You’re in the BB with a stack of 4500 with 300/150/25 blinds. The pot is 675, but you have more than 10BB. You’re in the CO and you pick up 9c8c.

UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls 300, MP2 folds, MP3 calls 300, Hero…

So here you have a pot that’s 1275, your stack is 4500. The pot is now slightly under 1/3 your stack, and you really need to ask yourself, “would I call, fold, or raise all-in with 88?” And really if you don’t jam with that line, you’re DEFINITELY playing too passively pre-flop with a short stack. What hands are players limping here? Weak Aces? Low PP? suited connectors? Which of these hands are going to make a big call to your jam? Some of the bigger aces will (A7+) but they fold frequently as well, and the bigger they get the less they are in the range of hands. The same logic applies to the PP. How often are you seeing 88+ here? Incredibly infrequently. And will suited connectors even call? Infrequently.

Hero raises to 4500, BU folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 folds, MP2 Calls 4200
Hero shows 9c8c. Villain shows 77

And here is where an important principle that many don’t realize or respect comes into play:


Your equity comes from exploiting players and forcing players to make bad decisions that they feel are correct.


When a villain can make a +EV call that is +EV for both you AND him, you both win in the long run. It’s much more +EV for him to fold, but the largest pots you win in poker are when both players make the correct decisions and you simply get lucky with a bunch of dead money!

This post originally was going to be about pushing small SC edges as a short stack EVEN in multi-way pre-flop pots. Some people do it anyway, but I really wanted to explain the logic that applies to why we make these decisions and why they are profitable.

Another example:
You’re in the BB with a stack of 4500 with 300/150/25 blinds. The pot is 675, but you have more than 10BB. You’re in the CO and you pick up 6c7c.

UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls 300, MP2 folds, MP3 calls 300, Hero…

Is this the same situation as previous? Almost really. Would you push 66 here? Personally I would most of the time. Sometimes I won’t. Remember that 88-99 are more likely now, though they still may fold to a jam. Let’s assume that someone here has limped with two broadway overcards either through bad play or a good read on you, and they plan on calling your jam here.

You jam 4500, they call 4200. There’s 1275 in dead money, which is a little over 10% of the pot. You are 40/60 against the range of AJs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo. But the FE you gain against most of these hands is huge. Is QT, KJ, QJ going to call you? Yes. But not frequently enough to make up for the 10% edge you’re not getting here in odds. The higher in their range their hand, the more it must be discounted because it was limped. The lower the range of their hand, the more FE you have against it. This jam has to work one time a tournament when the pot is offering you 1/3 your stack for it to be profitable, in order to make up for the 10% edge lost as a 60/40.

The best part?

[ QUOTE ]
3. Most players don’t take position into account with regards to short stack play, thanks to Harrington’s advice that all-in vigorous trumps position and being all in changes your positional mechanics post-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

A few rotations later, if your M falls under 5, when you jam JJ+ in EP, they’re going to assume your range is much looser than your EP range and call looser as a result. I see so many hands pop up here because of general disbelief that I have a hand *this time* and many players think they’re either in a flip/have me dominated with lower PP/weaker Aces.

Well this is long, it’s probably boring, but it’s why I go deep so typically in my MTTs. I create opportunities for players to make +EV calls for me and +EV folds for me. Yes you will run into overpairs, but you also have significant fold equity against the overpairs that you have to be afraid of within their ranges.

This post is to prematurely celebrate my 1200 post, which I'm sure will come as a result of me clarifying something I explained badly here. I do think some concepts here haven't been explored, at least recently, on this forum and if they have been, definitely deserve to be discussed again.