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Old 08-12-2007, 06:09 AM
stinkypete stinkypete is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: lost my luckbox
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Default Re: How do I bet on the yen vs. USD?

[ QUOTE ]

1) OP wants to gamble,
2) currency markets are the most inefficient and finding one of those spots is very profitable. (payoff profile of carry-trade investments is win win win ... win LOSE BIG, so betting against that has a payoff profile that is similar to a call option)

therefore, to OP, i have good news: you're pretty much at just the limit of what i think the notional value of a futures contract is, and can definitely take a position here since you don't even need the notional value to take on a position.

i.e. you can go to InteractiveBrokers.com and open an account. you can then execute a long yen futures order (and just roll it before every expiration) and keep the margin necessary in liquid funds there. i think you should obviously have far more than the margin since the bet can move up and down a lot but overall i don't think you actually need more than 3k for this bet (overnight margin=~2k).maybe 4 or 5k for safety...

enjoy,
Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

i guess i should have been more specific.

really, what i was saying, is that the participants in currency markets aren't so stupid that you can bet on the yen rising 10% in the next few years and expect a 10x payoff if it does without a huge amount of risk. and when i say huge, i of course mean around a 90% risk of ruin, since you're looking to get 10 to 1. maybe if you know something about the currency markets that's not currently priced in but will be in the next few years, or if you're good at timing the market with technical analysis you might be able to reduce that risk such that you have a significant edge, but i'm not so sure that's the case here.

the leverage the OP wants simply isn't obtainable without ridiculous amounts of risk.

how much gamble are you looking for OP? do you realize how high your risk of ruin is with the numbers you proposed?
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